Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience light rains during the forecast period.

Dry conditions are expected to persist in Somalia during the coming three days. Light rains of up to 20mm are foreseen in the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia during the same period.

The northern parts of Somalia continue to experience drought conditions following consecutive failure of rainy seasons in the area. Further, extreme hydrological drought conditions in the upper parts of Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia have led reduced river flows along the entire channel both in Somalia and Ethiopia.

The Gu 2016 (March to May) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities within the Shabelle river basins in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, open river bank points and poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding in the event of heavy rains and increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using very high resolution satellite imagery for the period 2015 and 2016 and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and verifications with field observations. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the months of January and February 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past and minimal or no interventions have been put in place. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them. The attached and maps and tables provide the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, 19 open points along the Shabelle and 23 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened immediately. It is however worth noting that the methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries and field verification with limitation of physical access at some locations. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear or not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages with detailed information have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Warbixinta baarista khayraadka dalka Somaliland waxay waramaysaa diiwaagelin kheyraad dabiiciga ah iyo muuqaal daleed. Fiirada gaarka ee warbixintu waxay ku saabsan tahay taageero siinta geedi-socodka horumarin siyaasad dhul. Diiwaagelin Khayraad Dabiici ah waxay muhiim u tahay qorshayn isticmaal dhul oo dhamaystiran taasoo fiiro gaar ah u leh khayraad bulshadeedka dhulka iyo biyaha, waxayna aasaas u noqonaysaa meel u furan qorshayn iyo ilaalin, kala xadayn cusub, qorshayn dhawris, meelo muhiimad deegaaneed iyo qorsheyaal iyo siyaasado kale oo degmadeed. Daraasadaan waxay ku qabsoontey iyadoo loo marayo qiimayn miis dushii ah ee khayraadka dhulka oo la isticmaalayo macluumaadka hadda jira (ciidda, cimilada, isticmaalka dhulka, dayax-gacmeed), sahan carro iyo falanqayn xog ciid si loo kordhiyo fahmidda sifooyinka ciidda oo ay ka mid yihiin bacrin ciid iyo sahanno waxyaabo kale oo wax soo saar ciid kala duwaya, hab-nololeed iyo isticmaal dhul si loo xaqiijiyo habab waxsoosaar (Hababka Isticmaalka Dhulka) oo ay horey u qeexday SWALIM iyo baaris ciido, isticmaal dhul iyo xaddidnaan iyo heer awoodeed ee waxsoosaar iyo iskuduwid saldhig-xog khayraad dhul oo la ballaariyey ee. Diiwaagelinta xogta khayraadka dhulka waxay sameeyey shaqaale ka tirsan Wasaaradda Deegaanka iyo Horumarinta Reer Miyiga (MoERD) ee Somaliland. Kahor sahanno goobaha duurka looga baahna ayaa SWALIM waxay u tababartay shaqaalaha wasaaradda habka loo sameeyo xog ka soo ururin dibedaha duurka. Markaas ka dib ayaa kooxda duurka loo diray si ay u soo ururiso xogta khayraadka dhulka. Xogta waxaa laga soo uruuriyey arrimaha isticmaal dhul, ded dhul, hab-nololeed, iyo ciid gudaha degmooyinka Burco iyo Oodweyne ee Somaliland. Xogtan waa la falanqeeyay iyo natiijooyinkana waxaa loo soo bandhigay maamullada Somaliland iyadoo loo qabtay shirweyne daneeye kaasoo noqday kii ugu soo jiidasho badnaa hawsha SWALIM qabato. Waxaa laga soosaaray warbixin cinwaan looga dhigay "Warbixin baaris geyiyeed iyo khayraadka dhulka Soomaaliland". Warbixinta Saldhigga Khayraadka Dabiiciga iyo baaris geyiyeedka Somaliland, oo ay weheliso sadhigyo-xogeed oo la xiriira khayraadka dabiiciga, waa aalado muhiim ah si kor loogu qaado helitaan macluumaadka dhulka iyo khayraadka dabiiciga kale loo dhanyahay si loo fududeeyo maalgelin waxsoosaar leh iyo taageerid horumarin bulshadeed iyo mid dhaqaale. Tilmaamo maareyn khayraad dabiici ayaa sidoo kale la hormarin doona oo waafaqsan nuxurrada warbixinta.

The Deyr 2015 rainy season experienced El Nino conditions that resulted into good rains in many parts of the country. Despite this, the northern parts of the country are facing drought conditions. Two appeals for assistance have been sent by both the Somaliland and Puntland authorities. The drought conditions are as a result of failed consecutive rainy seasons especially in the western part of Somaliland. The situation is expected to worsen during the coming months owing to the continued depletion of available water resources in the areas. The next rainy sea-son is expected to start in late March.

We are pleased to share Issue 10 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period September 2015 – December 2015. This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as; The SWALIM Open days in Mogadishu, the Land and Water Days in Rome, SWALIM Supports Gulley Erosion Rehabilitation Monitoring System in Puntland, Launch of the Somali National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), a feature article on El Niño, How SWALIM Supported Early Warning and Preparedness and Feasibility Study on irrigation water management in the Middle Shabelle region complete.

According to the recently issued climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, the 2016 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be within normal, however, there is increased likelihood of below normal rains in some areas and above normal rains in others. The Gu rainy season is the primary cropping season in Somalia because it is more dominant in terms of quantity and reliability. 75% of the annual rainfall in Somalia is recorded during this season. The Gu rains start in March/April and ends at different times throughout the country depending on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is responsible for driving the rainfall. According to the recently issued climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, the 2016 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be within normal. However, there is increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rains with 40% probability of experiencing normal rains and 35% probability of below normal rains in Somaliland, the northern parts of Puntland, Juba valley and parts of Lower Shabelle.

Territorial diagnostic report of the land resources of Somaliland gives an inventory of the natural resources and a territorial diagnostic report. The focus of the report on providing support to land policy development process. Natural Resource Inventory is essential for comprehensive land-use planning that proactively considers a community's land and water resources, and provides the foundation for open space planning and protection, zoning updates, conservation planning, critical environmental areas, and other municipal plans and policies. The study was accomplished through a desk assessment of the land resources using existing data (soil, climate, land use, satellite), soil survey and soil data analysis to increase understanding of soil characteristics including soil fertility and other soil production variables, livelihood and land use surveys to verify production systems (Land Use Systems) previously defined by SWALIM and analysis of soils, land use and production limitation and potential and compilation of an expanded land resources database. Inventory of the land resources data was done by staff from Somaliland Ministry of Environment and Rural Development (MoERD). Prior to required field surveys the ministry staff was trained by SWALIM on field data collection methodology. The team was then sent to the field to collect land resources data. Data was collected on land use, land cover, livelihoods, and soils in Burco and Owdweyne districts of Somaliland. These data was analyzed and results presented to Somaliland authorities in a stakeholder workshop that formed the climax of the activity by SWALIM. A report titled “Territorial diagnostic report of the land resources of Somaliland” was produced. The Natural Resource Base and Territorial Diagnostic Report for Somaliland, together with related natural resources databases, are important tools to promote inclusive access to land and other natural resources information in order to facilitate productive investments and support the country’s social and economic development. Natural resources management guidelines will also be developed based on the contents of the report.

This Contingency Plan articulates what the Federal Republic of Somalia Government through Disaster Management Authority (DMA) and with the support of partners will do to prevent or reduce any potential adverse impacts emanating from floods and drought disasters. Within this context, the Contingency Plan aims to prepare for and adequately respond to any of these common disasters when they evolve beyond the coping capacity of stakeholders. It was developed through a participatory and inclusive multi-stakeholder process and aims to promote a coordinated approach to preparedness and response before, during and after disasters. In addition, the Plan is in line with provisions of the DMA Strategic Action Plan for 2016 that proposes to put in place an early warning system to help instill Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) mechanisms in averting or minimizing the impact of disasters and also in the creation of effective emergency response and recovery plans. One of the outcome of the training of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Early Warning (EW) held from 11th to 15th October 2015 in Mogadishu was the prioritization of key hazards likely to require contingency measures. These were identified as mainly drought and floods but with other minor ones such as land degradation, epidemics, conflicts, and pest infestation. The prioritized hazards identified in the Contingency Plan were developed with three scenarios. The most likely scenario envisages that there will be drought due to the failure of seasonal rainfall or flooding characterized with above normal rainfall in some parts of the country especially the Juba and Shabelle River Basins. As a result households will be affected and in both cases require assistance for a stipulated period of time.