The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most areas of Central Somalia. In the northern and southern parts of the country light rains are expected; while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate rains in the same period.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days. However, a tropical storm named CHAPALA is expected to make a land fall in Yemen. The passage of this tropical storm is expected to cause strong winds in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions which may also lead to heavy rains in the area during the forecast period. Areas to watch are Caluula, Qandala, Bossaso and Laasqoray.

Within the last few days, heavy rains have been experienced in some parts of the Shabelle River basin both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas including Mataban, Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar and Mogadishu. Following the heavy rains, the river  levels have increased drastically in the middle reaches of the river. Today’s river level in Jowhar is 5.20m which has surpassed the moderate flood risk level. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (24th to 30th October, 2015) is pointing towards heavy rains  within the Ethiopian highlands especially in the headwaters of the Shabelle basin as seen in the Map.  Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further especially in downstream areas thus endangering vulnerable communities. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle  river given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include; Mahadey Weyne town and its environs; Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently at full crest, Other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in low lying areas of the central parts of the country.

The Deyr rains in Somalia continue to spread both in space and intensity. The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands.

The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of the country will continue to receive light to moderate rains. Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during in the coming three days.

During the third dekad of October, (21st – 31st October 2015), wet conditions persisted in southern and central parts of the country with some parts of these regions experiencing flash floods. The north western parts remained dry throughout the month of October. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. The table below is a brief summary of the rainfall situation by region for this dekad. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Gu rainy season.

Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud and Mudug regions in the coming three days. Other areas that may record moderate rains include parts of Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Bay regions. The northern pats of the country and the Juba valley may record little or no rains during the same period.

The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. However, light rains are forecasted for Lower Juba and the Bari regions during the same period.

We are pleased to share Issue 9 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period May 2015 - August 2015. This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as: What El Nino Means for Somalia, Empowering Women in Somalia with Information Management Skills, SWALIM Information Days in Somaliland and Puntland, Using Remote Sensing for Monitoring, Hydrogeology Study in Ceel Waaq District, Study on Flood and Irrigation Control Systems in Middle Shabelle and Data Centres in Mogadishu.

Light rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period, with few pockets in Togdheer and Bari regions experiencing high rainfall of up to 100mm which can lead to flash floods. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.