Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations in the north recording between 30mm to 50mm. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland .Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.

Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience light rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There is a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.

The northern parts of Somalia continue to experience drought conditions following consecutive failure of rainy seasons in the area. Further, extreme hydrological drought conditions in the upper parts of Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia have led reduced river flows along the entire channel both in Somalia and Ethiopia.

The Gu 2016 (March to May) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities within the Shabelle river basins in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, open river bank points and poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding in the event of heavy rains and increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using very high resolution satellite imagery for the period 2015 and 2016 and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and verifications with field observations. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the months of January and February 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past and minimal or no interventions have been put in place. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them. The attached and maps and tables provide the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, 19 open points along the Shabelle and 23 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened immediately. It is however worth noting that the methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries and field verification with limitation of physical access at some locations. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear or not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages with detailed information have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Dry conditions are expected to persist in Somalia during the coming three days. Light rains of up to 20mm are foreseen in the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia during the same period.

Warbixinta baarista khayraadka dalka Somaliland waxay waramaysaa diiwaagelin kheyraad dabiiciga ah iyo muuqaal daleed. Fiirada gaarka ee warbixintu waxay ku saabsan tahay taageero siinta geedi-socodka horumarin siyaasad dhul. Diiwaagelin Khayraad Dabiici ah waxay muhiim u tahay qorshayn isticmaal dhul oo dhamaystiran taasoo fiiro gaar ah u leh khayraad bulshadeedka dhulka iyo biyaha, waxayna aasaas u noqonaysaa meel u furan qorshayn iyo ilaalin, kala xadayn cusub, qorshayn dhawris, meelo muhiimad deegaaneed iyo qorsheyaal iyo siyaasado kale oo degmadeed. Daraasadaan waxay ku qabsoontey iyadoo loo marayo qiimayn miis dushii ah ee khayraadka dhulka oo la isticmaalayo macluumaadka hadda jira (ciidda, cimilada, isticmaalka dhulka, dayax-gacmeed), sahan carro iyo falanqayn xog ciid si loo kordhiyo fahmidda sifooyinka ciidda oo ay ka mid yihiin bacrin ciid iyo sahanno waxyaabo kale oo wax soo saar ciid kala duwaya, hab-nololeed iyo isticmaal dhul si loo xaqiijiyo habab waxsoosaar (Hababka Isticmaalka Dhulka) oo ay horey u qeexday SWALIM iyo baaris ciido, isticmaal dhul iyo xaddidnaan iyo heer awoodeed ee waxsoosaar iyo iskuduwid saldhig-xog khayraad dhul oo la ballaariyey ee. Diiwaagelinta xogta khayraadka dhulka waxay sameeyey shaqaale ka tirsan Wasaaradda Deegaanka iyo Horumarinta Reer Miyiga (MoERD) ee Somaliland. Kahor sahanno goobaha duurka looga baahna ayaa SWALIM waxay u tababartay shaqaalaha wasaaradda habka loo sameeyo xog ka soo ururin dibedaha duurka. Markaas ka dib ayaa kooxda duurka loo diray si ay u soo ururiso xogta khayraadka dhulka. Xogta waxaa laga soo uruuriyey arrimaha isticmaal dhul, ded dhul, hab-nololeed, iyo ciid gudaha degmooyinka Burco iyo Oodweyne ee Somaliland. Xogtan waa la falanqeeyay iyo natiijooyinkana waxaa loo soo bandhigay maamullada Somaliland iyadoo loo qabtay shirweyne daneeye kaasoo noqday kii ugu soo jiidasho badnaa hawsha SWALIM qabato. Waxaa laga soosaaray warbixin cinwaan looga dhigay "Warbixin baaris geyiyeed iyo khayraadka dhulka Soomaaliland". Warbixinta Saldhigga Khayraadka Dabiiciga iyo baaris geyiyeedka Somaliland, oo ay weheliso sadhigyo-xogeed oo la xiriira khayraadka dabiiciga, waa aalado muhiim ah si kor loogu qaado helitaan macluumaadka dhulka iyo khayraadka dabiiciga kale loo dhanyahay si loo fududeeyo maalgelin waxsoosaar leh iyo taageerid horumarin bulshadeed iyo mid dhaqaale. Tilmaamo maareyn khayraad dabiici ayaa sidoo kale la hormarin doona oo waafaqsan nuxurrada warbixinta.

The Deyr 2015 rainy season experienced El Nino conditions that resulted into good rains in many parts of the country. Despite this, the northern parts of the country are facing drought conditions. Two appeals for assistance have been sent by both the Somaliland and Puntland authorities. The drought conditions are as a result of failed consecutive rainy seasons especially in the western part of Somaliland. The situation is expected to worsen during the coming months owing to the continued depletion of available water resources in the areas. The next rainy sea-son is expected to start in late March.