Light rains continued to be observed in a few places across the country within the last few days. The cumulated rainfall forecast for the coming three days shows an expected increase of rainfall activities especially in Mudug, Galgadud, Hiraan, Bay and Bakool regions of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The intensity of the rains is expected to spread further in space and quantity as the week progresses given the 7 days rainfall forecast. Consequently, river levels are expected to rise further with a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers towards the end of the week. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received. The forecast, observed river levels and rainfall amounts are updated on a daily basis and can be found on this link: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/

Tobankii maalmood oo dambe waxaa ka jirey roobab aad iyo aad u culus gudaha qaar ka mid ah gobollada Koonfureed iyo bartamaha Soomaaliya oo sababay fatahaad iyo barkac ka dhacay gudaha dhawr meelood. Gobolka Bay waxaa ka da’ay xaddiyada roobabkii ugu cuslaa oo goobaha qaar wuxuu dhawr maalmood sare ugu kacay roobabkii celceliska sanadalaha ahaa. Xaaladaha roob-di’idda waxaa la filayaa in aya raadaan toddobaadka soo socda oo ka muuqata saadaasha roob-di’idda 3-da maalmood iyo halka toddobaad sida mid mid ahaan ku cad Khariiradadda 1 iyo Khariiradda 2. Halkas waxaa ka jiraya halis fatahaadeed ah dhexdhexaad ilaa mid sare gaar ahaan bartamaha iyo inta hoose oo ay maraan Webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle meelahaas oo hadda heerarka webiyada ay tahay mid aad u sarreysa. Isticmaaleyaaasha waxaa lagu wargelinaya in waxaani ay yihiin saadaal oo ay dhici karto in mararka qaar ay wax iska weydaartaan saadaasha iyo xaqiiqda qadarka roobka la helay. Saadaasha, heerarka webiga la arkay iyo qadarka roobka-da’a waxaa loo cusboonaynsiiyaa si maalinle ah waxaana laga helikaraa gudaha xiriirkaan: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/ .

Roobab fudfudud ayaa lagu arkayaa inay ka sii socdaan dhawr meelood oo ku kala durdurugsa gudaha dalka oo idil intii lagu jirey dhawrkii maalmood oo dambe. Saadaasha roob-di’idda la isugeeyey ee saddexda maalmood oo soo scota waxay muujineysaa koror la filayo oo roob-di’id ah gaar ahaan gudaha gobollada Soomaaliya ee Mudug, Galguduud, Hiiraan, Bay iyo Bakool iyo Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya. Xaddiga roobabka waxaa la filayaa inn uu ku sii faafo bed/masaaxad ahaan iyo tiro ahaan markii toddobaadku sii socdo oo loo gudbo toddobada maalmood ee saadaasha roob-di’idda. Sidaa awgeed, heerarka webiga ayaa la filayaa inay sii kordhaan taaasoo ku keeni karta halis fatahaad bartamaha iyo dhanka hoose ee labada webi Jubba iyo Shabeelle ilaa dhammaadka toddobaadka. Daadadka ayaa sidoo kale laga yaabaa inay ka dhacaan meelaha ay saadaashu ku tilmaameyso roob-di’id badan.

During the week ending on 13 November 2017, the Juba and Shabelle river basins experienced heavy rains both inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands.  In Bay region, Qansax Dheere and Dinsor stations recorded a total of 426mm and 376mm respectively while Baidoa town received 125mm in the last 10 days. The heavy rains consequently led to increased river levels causing riverine flooding in sections of the rivers and flash floods elsewhere. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands continued to receive good rains during the same period. Map - 1 shows the total satellite Rainfall Estimates (RFE) which also indicates heavy amounts of rainfall in the basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a significant reduction of rainfall amounts both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Following the heavy rains seen in the last week, the levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal at this time of the year. However, this is expected to stabilize towards the end of the week given the rainfall forecast. There remains a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers.

The last 24 hours have seen moderate to heavy rains in many parts of the central and southern regions. Today morning, Baidoa and Bulo Burti stations recorded the highest amounts of 124mm and 119mm respectively. Other stations that recorded heavy rains include Bardheere (65mm), Wanle Weyne (52mm), and Mataban (40mm) among others. Heavy rains in Baidoa town and the surroundings led to flash floods and destruction of property. The heavy rains are expected to continue in the next seven days. River levels are expected to continue rising with a moderate to high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall.

The last few days continued to record good rains in many parts of the southern and central regions of Somalia while the northern regions remained relatively dry. The good rains are expected to continue in the next seven days. With a reduction of intensity and spatial distribution towards the end of the week. River levels are expected to continue rising with a moderate to high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall.

The last 10 days have seen extremely heavy rains in some parts of southern and central regions of Somalia causing flooding and displacements in a few places. Bay region saw the heaviest amounts of rainfall with some station surpassing the annual average rains in a few days. Rainfall activities are expected to decrease in the coming week given the 3 days and one week rainfall forecasts. There remains a moderate to high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle rivers where the river levels are currently very high.

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

Saadaasha Roob-di’dda la isu geeyey saddexda maalmood waxay tilmaamaysaa in Gobollada Dhexe iyo kuwa Koofureed ee dalka ay roobabku ay u socon doonaan kuwo fudud ilaa dhexdhexaad sidaas oo kale buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya waxaana la filayaa in uu kordho xaddigi iyo baaxad ahaan inta toddobaadku socdo, sida lagu muujiyey. Qaybaha Galbeed ee Soomaaliland iyo qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya oo ku jiraan Jubada Hoose, Shabeelaha Hoose iyo Shabeellaha Dhexe waa ay qalalnaan doonaan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo. Heerarka webiga dhulka bartamaha Shabeelle hadda kor ayey u kacsan yihiin oo waxaa ka jira halis xoogan oo fatahaad gudaha Jowhar iyo deegaannadeeda.

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in the southern regions bordering Kenya and Scattered places in Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in parts of Bari region of in the north within the three days. The one week forecast is calling for increased rains in Somaliland and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a moderate risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs given the rainfall forecast.