Most regions of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and Puntland where light showers are expected in the same period. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in a few areas in the Central and coastal areas of the South. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

During the week ending on 09 May 2017, there were light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins with heavy rains foreseen in the coastal areas of the basins inside Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are also expected to record significant rains during the week in focus. Following the rains that were recorded in the basins in the last few weeks, the river levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal levels at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast and the high river levels, there is a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River. Flooding in Middle Shabelle has been reported in Madheere Village and has caused damage to large amounts of cropped area and displacement of some households. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba during the forecast period.

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland recorded good rains which was well distributed in space and time since 01 May 2017. Southern parts of the country also received good rains in a few pockets since the beginning of the month. There was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Puntland over the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days but with less magnitude. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates no rains in the country except a few pockets of Sanaag in the north and Gedo in the south that may receive light rains. The rains are however expected to increase towards the end of the week spreading in several places across the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 25 April 2017 (Map 2) shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March with the southern parts of Awdal region recording heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to water stress in the area. The other parts of the country are expected to start receiving the Gu rains by mid April. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains re expected to increase in the same areas towards the end of the week as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 11 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates no significant rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 26 April 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

Xilligii Guga sanadka 2017 wuxuu ka bilowday qaybo ka mid ah Soomaalilan intii lagu guda jirey toddobaadkii laga soo gudbay ee Maarso iyadoo qaybaha koonfureed ee Gobolka Awdal la diiwaaniyey roobab mahiigaan ah oo ku fidsanaa shan maalmood. Tani waxay keentay in degdeg looga soo kabsado cadaadiskii deegaanka biyaha ka haystay. Qaybaha kale ee dalka waxaa la filayaa in ay bilaabato helitaanka roobabkii Guga marka la gaaro bartamaha Abriil. Saadaasha roob-da’idda maanta (Khariidad 1) waxay muujinaysaa roobab fudud oo gaaraya ilaa 20mm gudaha Gobollada Koonfureed, qaybo ka tirsan Soomaaliland iyo Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya. Roobabka waxaa la filayaa inay ku kordhaan isla deegaannadaan ilaa dhammaadka toddobaadka sida lagu arkayo gudaha Khariidadda 2 taas oo sax uun ku ah ilaa 11 Abriil 2017. Xoogaa ama roob la’aan ay la saadaalinayaa gudaha Puntland iyo Gobollada Dhexe inta lagu guda jiro muddada la odorosay.

The Gu rains started in may parts of Somalia with below average performance in Southern regions. During the second Dekad of April 2017 (11th – 20th), there was a reduction of rainfall activities in in many places from the previous dekad. The season is yet to start in Puntland and the central regions of the country which remained dry remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas. Moderate rains received in the in the Ethiopian highlands in the beginning of the month led to an increase of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle.

Light rains were reported in a few places in southern regions of Somalia in the last 24 hours. Belet Weyne in Hiraan recorded 5mm of rainfall while Wanle Weyne in Lower Shabelle, and Bur Hakaba in Bay received a total of 10mm and 8mm respectively. Light rains were also reported in a few pockets of the western side of Somaliland while no rains were reported in Puntland during the same period. Field reports also indicate light to moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will increase in the same areas in terms of space and quantity as the week progresses as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 12 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period. Given the forecast, the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle are expected to increase with no risk of flooding during the coming week. The levels and rainfall forecast are updated on a daily basis and can be found in this link: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates light to moderate rains parts of northern areas of the country especially in Togdheer, Sanag, Sool, Bari and Nugaal regions. Other parts of the country will remain dry within the next 24 hours. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 02 May 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Given the forecast, cases of flash floods cannot be ruled out especially in the northern areas within the week. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.