The week ending 09 April 2017 saw moderate rains in parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia. No significant rains were reported in Puntland. The Ethiopian highland also received good rains that led to a sharp increase in river levels inside Somalia and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches which had gone dry since the beginning of the year. The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates little or no rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 16 April 2017 shows light to moderate rains in few pockets of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool with little or no rains in other regions (Map 2).

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March. Many stations in the region recorded moderate rains while southern parts of Awdal region recorded heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to the area which has been experiencing a prolonged dry period like the rest of the country. More rains are expected in April and May. The rains are yet to start in many other areas of the country, including Puntland and southern regions. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates no significant rainfall amounts but the rains are expected to intensify with the time and space during the week ending on 10th April, 2017 as seen in Map 2. The Cumulated rainfall forecast for the week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions and the Ethiopian highland (20 to 100mm). Light to moderate rains of up to 40mm is expected in Somaliland while Puntland and central regions will remain dry.

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

A few pockets in the western parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia will experience light rains while moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands in the coming three days. The rest of the country will remain dry in the same period.

The three days accumulated rainfall forecast is calling for light rains of up to 20mm in some parts of the southern regions of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands . The rest of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

There will be a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of the country in the coming three days. Most areas in the country will remain dry with exception of the southern coast that may receive light rains.

Light scattered rains are expected in a few areas at the central and southern parts of the country, especially along the coast. The rest of the country will remain dry in the next three days. Light to moderate rains are expected at the Ethiopian highlands in the same period.

The northern and central parts of Somalia are expected to remain dry in the coming three days while the southern parts and the Ethiopian highlands will be expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.