The ongoing floods along the Shabelle River in Somalia has affected Belet Weyne District the worst. In Belet Weyne town, the river has remained at bankful level for the seventh day running. Flood waters have continued to ravage the town displacing more than 160,000 persons. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 15,504 Hectares have been inundated as of 30 October 2019. This includes 3,265 ha of irrigated agriculture, 7,332 ha of rain-fed agriculture and 4,907 ha of natural vegetation. A total of 111 settlements are also under water. It is worth noting that the current flood extent in Belet Weyne town has not been detected due to the intrinsic nature of radar and optical images used (Sentinel-1 and 2 respectively). The Sentinel-1 imagery may significantly underestimate the presence of standing floodwater in dense built-up areas due to backscattering of the radar signal, while Sentinel-2 imagery is affected by cloud cover over Belet Weyne.

Unusual heavy rains were recorded in parts of Juba and Shabelle Catchments in the last few days. Some of the stations that recorded significant amounts in the last three days include Mataban (120mm), Belet Weyne (60mm), Mogadishu (46mm), Dollow (136mm) and Luuq (67mm). Flash floods and riverine flooding have been reported in parts of Gedo region following the heavy rains. In Luuq district, unconfirmed acreage of cropped land has been inundated while several people living close to the Juba river in Dollow have been temporarily displaced. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in many parts of the country. As the week progresses the rains will intensify and spread further in space, with many parts of the country recording 50mm and above. Heavy rains of up to 200mm are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period. The heavy rains will lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, which translates in a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle and Gedo region in Juba basin.

Rainfall activities persisted in the second and third weeks of October inside Somalia and within the eastern Ethiopian highlands. The rains have replenished water sources leading to a reduction of water stress and boosted both pasture growth and crop cultivation. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. On the downside, the heavy rains have led to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia surpassing the high-risk thresholds for flooding in areas of Belet Weyne and Jowhar along the Shabelle and Bardheere along the Juba. The high river levels have consequently led to overflows, causing floods in low-lying areas along the two rivers. The worst affected areas along the Shabelle River include Belet Weyne in Hiraan and parts of Middle Shabelle where there has been destruction of property and inundation of farmlands. As of 22 October, the river level at Belet Weyne is at 7.8m which is about half a meter short of the full bank level. Over bank spillages from minor tributaries passing through Belet Weyne town have caused flooding leading to displacements of a significant number of households. The local authority and partners have started to evacuate vulnerable communities to higher grounds within Belet Weyne. There has also been river flooding in the Ethiopian highlands about 20 Km north of Belet Weyne, and this flood wave is expected to reach Somalia over the next one to two days if rainfall continues, further exacerbating the flood risk inside Somalia. Observed river levels have remained high at Jowhar and Mahadey Weyne districts where large swathes of croplands have been damaged by floods. Existing river breakages (39 points identified and reported by SWALIM in September 2019) could lead to increased flooding if not urgently mitigated. Dollow, Luuq, Bardheere and Buale districts in Gedo and Middle Juba Regions were also affected by river flooding along the Juba. Field reports indicate that four people lost their lives in Bardheere, and the floods have displaced an estimated 750 households; further, 250 livestock drowned, and the waters damaged about 1,200 farms. In Bay and Bakool regions, flash floods destroyed cropland (sorghum, maize and cowpeas) that were at the seedling stage. Low lying areas of Gedo were also affected by flash floods over the last one week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows a reduction of rainfall activities especially within the Ethiopian highlands. However, heavy rains are expected in Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions which may lead to flash floods in low-lying areas in these regions. The increasing trend of river levels is expected to continue in the coming week with flooding expected along the Shabelle and Juba rivers.

Moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many places across the country as the Deyr season continues to spread. While there was an increase in the rainfall activities in Somaliland and the southern regions, the central parts and north eastern parts received little on no rains. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. Heavy rains of up to 200mm are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period. The heavy rains will lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, which translates in a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle River as well as Gedo and Middle Juba regions along the Juba River.

The Deyr (October-December) rains, which started early in many parts of Somalia, continued in the fourth week of October. Moderate to heavy rains were recorded across the country, apart from parts of Bari and Nugal Regions where the rains were light and in some areas no rains at all. The Ethiopian highlands, where the Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate, equally received moderate to heavy rains over the last couple of weeks. River levels along the entire reaches of Juba and Shabelle have been high over the last few weeks, owing to the heavy rainfall both in Ethiopia and Somalia. Shabelle River: The river level at Belet Weyne reached bankfull level (8.3m) over the last 24 hours. This has led to overbank spillage into Belet Weyne town, and consequently inundating many settlements. The overbank flow is continuing with flood waters expanding fast across the town. Currently the worst affected sections of Belet Weyne town are Kooshin and Xaawo Taako. Destruction of property by floods has also been reported in other parts of Hiraan Region. The local authority and partners have started to evacuate vulnerable communities to higher grounds in the most affected areas. In Middle Shabelle, floods damaging large areas under cropland have been reported in Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. In Jowhar, the river level reached the threshold for high flood risk since late August, and has since been fluctuating within this level to date. Today’s river level a Jowhar is 5.30m, and the level is expected to rise in the coming few days when the current flood wave in Belet Weyne is transmitted downstream. Existence of river breakages (39 points identified and reported by SWALIM in September 2019) is likely to escalate the flooding situation unless urgent mitigation measures are taken. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels drastically increased over the last two weeks, surpassing the threshold for moderate flood risk at the upper reaches of the river. Bardheere town is worst affected, with parts of the town inundated. Flooding was also reported in Dollow, Luuq and Buale districts in Gedo and Middle Juba Regions. Currently the levels are high along the entire reach, and any slight increase is likely to cause further flooding. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted in flash floods destroying cropland (sorghum, maize and cowpeas). Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Low lying areas of Gedo experienced flash floods as well over the last one week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (October 25-31, Map 2) shows a reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia, especially in the northern parts of the country where light or no rains are expected. In the central and southern parts of the country as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands moderate rains are expected within the same period. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods may also be experienced in low-lying areas where moderate rains are expected.

The last few days saw an increase in rainfall activities in the southern and northwestern regions of the country. Northeastern and central regions did not record any significant amounts of rainfall. The Ethiopian highlands recorded heavy rains during the same period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains in most parts of Juba and Shabelle river basins within Somali and the Ethiopian highlands.  The foreseen heavy rains may lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, translating to a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle River as well as Gedo and Middle Juba regions along the Juba River. Flash floods are expected in built-up and low lying areas of Bay and Bakool regions given the forecast. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and at times there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels are updated daily on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org. 

Tropical Storm KYARR expected to cause strong winds and some rains across Puntland and Somaliland A tropical storm named KYARR has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of Puntland and Somaliland in the next 4 to 5 days. The storm is expected to affect the coastal areas of Puntland in the next 96 hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas within 24 hours. Strong winds accompanied with light to moderate rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. The cyclone is going to affect the Puntland shipping line thus disrupting water transport in that area. Flash floods may also occur in some areas.

Moderate to heavy rains continued in many parts of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands also continued to receive heavy rains in the last few days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands.  The foreseen heavy rains may lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, translating to a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle River as well as Gedo and Middle Juba regions along the Juba River. Flash floods are expected in built-up and low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and central regions given the forecast.

A few places in Somalia received light rains during the last few days. Gedo region in the south, parts of Puntland and Somaliland recorded light rains of up to 20mm. The season is expected to continue spreading further in the coming weeks until the end of season in November. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 40mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland and a few places in Puntland. As the week progresses the rains will intensify and spread further in space, with many parts of the country recording 50 to 100mm in total. Heavy rains of up to 150mm are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period. The heavy rains will lead to increased river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. A moderate risk of flooding remains in the middle reaches of Shabelle river. Areas to watch out for floods include Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar, and Balcad districts riverine areas where there exist several open river banks and weak river embankments. River levels along the Juba are expected to rise slightly with no risk of flooding.

Compared to the previous three weeks, there has been a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. However, moderate to heavy rains were recorded in Bay and Bakool regions and a few places within the Shabelle in the last couple of days. The northern parts of the country remained mostly dry. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. While the river levels in Shabelle continued to increase reaching maximum holding capacity in Belet Weyne, there was a reduction of river levels along the Juba. Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels reached its maximum carrying capacity on 24 October 2019 and has remained so up to date leading to overflow which has left most the town under water. Reports so far indicate tens of people have drowned or are missing. Satellite image analysis further indicate inundation of more than 2,000 Hectares of agricultural land. In Middle Shabelle floods have damaged more than 10,000 hectares of cropland at Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. In Jowhar, the river level reached the high flood risk level since late August, and has been fluctuating within this level to date. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week. Existence of river breakages (39 points identified and reported by SWALIM in September 2019) is likely to escalate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last week. Bardheere town in Gedo however remained inundated and the situation has started to improve in the last few days. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted into flash floods destroying cropland (sorghum, maize and cowpeas). Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: A tropical storm named KYARR has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to reach Puntland and Somaliland in the next 72 Hours. Moderate rains and winds of low to medium strength will be experienced in both coastal and inland areas of these regions starting on 02 and 03 November 2019. It is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows an increase of rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas where moderate rains are expected.