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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-05-2016
Light rains are expected in a few pockets of Bari region, central and northern regions in Somalia as well as the headwaters of the two rivers in Ethiopia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period.
Today the river level at Belet Weyne, in the upper reaches of Shabelle River inside Somalia is at 8.30 m which is the bankfull level. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days.
There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-05-2016
Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia continue to cause flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region recorded high amount of rainfall (86mm) in the last 24 hours after which was followed by 75mm the yesterday (10 May 2016).
The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts.
There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions.
The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding has changed from moderate to high with river flooding in Lower Juba.
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Update on the Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers as April 2016
The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk.
Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land.
The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2016
Light rains are expected to prevail in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.
The river levels in the upper parts of Shabelle River in Belet weyne , Hiraan region have remained at full capacity for the last few days. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days.
There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-05-2016
The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts.
There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions.
The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.
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Somali Flood Alert 06-05-2016
Wet conditions persist in many parts of Somalia as a result of heavy rains in the country. The Ethiopian highlands have been receiving heavy rains in the last few weeks. Following these heavy rains, river levels have increased drastically along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Further more, flash floods have been reported in some areas in Puntland and Somaliland due to heavy rains in those areas.
The 3 days rainfall forecast (Map-1) points towards continued heavy rains with an increase towards the end of the week (Map-2).
Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the two rivers are expected to continue rising further, especially in downstream areas. Today’s river level at Belet Weyne along the Shabelle River is 6.60m. These high levels area expected to be transmitted further downstream with a likelihood of flooding.
There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days along the Shabelle River, while a moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba River.
The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in built up and low lying areas within Somaliland, Puntland (especially in Bari and Nugaal regions) and the central parts of the country.
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Flood Alert
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 03-05-2016
Widespread rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains.
The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.
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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 24-05-2016
During the week that ended on 23 May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands with most stations recording little or no rainfall.
For the last one week River levels at Belet Weyne remained at bank full resulting to flooding in the town and surrounding areas which has caused displacements and damage of properties. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted downstream with a moderate risk of flooding along the River.
River levels along the Juba have been reducing for the last few days. Given the rainfall forecast and the reducing trend there is minimal risk of flooding along the River.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-05-2016
Light to moderate rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. Along the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions the forecast calls for moderate to high rains; while in the Ethiopian highlands scattered light to moderate rains will be experienced in the forecast period.
There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions.
The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2016
Heavy rains have been reported in parts Somalia over the last two days. Consequently, river levels have gone up with cases of river flooding in Gedo, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions in the south. Flash floods were also reported in parts of Puntland following the heavy rains.
The three days rainfall forecast calls for reduced rainfall activities in the country, however, some parts in Lower Juba and northern regions may experience moderate rains. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-05-2016
Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains.
The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.
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Shabelle River Flood Advisory 27-05-2016
Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have remained high for the last few weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the months of April and May. The River level at Belet Weyne in Hiran is currently at bank full and has remained so for the last one week as seen in Figure 1. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in Belet Weyne town and the surroundings. There has been a significant reduction of rainfall activities both in Somali and the Ethiopian highlands. The high river levels being observed in Belet Weyne currently are due to the large amount of water coming from the upstream reaches in Ethiopia. Unofficial reports from Ethiopia indicate that there has been flooding in some areas and the flood water is now getting back to the river. In additional to this, there are minimal water abstractions in Ethiopia for irrigation and other purposes following the heavy rains in the highlands since April.
It is expected that the flood wave will be transmitted downstream of Belet Weyne in the coming days. Currently the river levels at Bulo Burti are very high and in less than five days this high levels will be reflected in Jowhar. There is therefore high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the Middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle river given the current situation. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently high and other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks.
For more information on this and related issues please visit: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/floods
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Flood Alert
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-05-2016
Light rains are expected in a few pockets of central and northern regions in Somalia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period.
There still remains a high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks.
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Flood Watch Bulletin 04-05-2016
During the week that ended on 3rd May 2016, moderate to heavy rains were experienced in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Mataban in Hiraan region recorded a total of 115mm in the week while Bur Hakaba in Bay region received a total of 92mm during the same period. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates moderate to heavy rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate to heavy rains in two river basins both in Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands.
River levels have been increasing since mid April due to heavy rains received within the basins. Currently, the levels are above the normal at this time of the year at all monitoring stations along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising river levels there is a foreseen high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River while moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along Juba during the forecast period.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-05-2016
Light rains are expected in a few places within Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions. The rest of the country and the upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia will remain dry during the forecast period.
The river level in the upper parts of Shabelle at Belet Weyne has slightly decreased from the week-long bankful level, but still remain within the high risk level. Downstream the river levels are expected to continue rising for the next few days, posing a risk to flooding especially in middle and lower reaches with existing open and weak river banks.
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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 17-05-2016
During the week that ended on 16th May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. River levels remain high along the entire channels of the two rivers. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 10-05-2016
Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia have led to flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland, Bari region in Bali Dhiddin district , heavy storms led to destruction of property last night. Eyl station
along the coast of Nugaal region also recorded high amount of rainfall (75mm) in the last 24 hours.
The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 05-05-2016
Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains.
The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.
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Somalia Flood Watch 31-05-2016
During the week that ended on 30 May 2016, minimal rainfall activities were experienced in Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations recording no rainfall. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 26-04-2016
The last 24 hours have seen an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country including Puntland and other central regions that have not had any significant rains since the beginning of the season.
The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-04-2016
Little or no rains are foreseen in Somalia for the next 24 hours. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands whose rains contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains within the same period.
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Somalia Dekadal Rainfall Update 1st Dekad, April 2016
During the first Dekad of April 2016 (1st – 10th), most parts of Somalia recorded good rains marking a possible start of the Gu rainy season this year. The northern parts recorded significant rains while the southern while central parts received little rains.
The Northwest Agro‐pastoral, Guban and West Golis pastoral areas of Somaliland which have remained dry for a long period experienced a relief when moderate to heavy rains were received in many parts of the area. Dilla and Boroma recorded the highest amounts of rainfall of 107mm and 83mm respectively. Other surrounding areas such Hargeisa and Gebilley also recorded significant amounts of rainfall. The southern parts of Sool and sanaag regions did not record any rains.
A few paces received light to moderate rains during the period under review. This also came a s relief especially to the livestock sector following the depletion of pasture in the area due to current drought conditions being experienced here. The rains are expected to increase further until the end of the season.
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Dekadal Rainfall Update
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 19-04-2016
Wet conditions persisted in the last few days in Somaliland with light to moderate rains being recorded in the western parts. Moderate rains have also been reported in parts of southern regions and in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and central regions remained dry with a few places in northern Sanaag region receiving light rains.
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.
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Somalia Rainfall Performance Update April 2016
Significant rains have been received in many areas of Somaliland especially in the western regions in the month of April. Light to moderate rains were recorded in Puntland in the last few days bringing an immediate relief to the dry and hot weather; however drought conditions are still apparent in the area.
The rains are expected to improve the drought conditions in both Puntland and Somaliland. The central parts of Somalia including Mudug and Galgadud regions have received little rains and remain water depressed. The southern regions have started recording moderate to heavy rains and this expected to continue in the coming week.
Moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced within the Ethiopian highlands which contributes about 90% of river flow to the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last week. The rising trend is expected to continue in the coming week. There is a possibility of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle in the coming days
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Rainfall Performance
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 27-04-2016
The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations in the north recording between 30mm to 50mm.
The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland .Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.
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