According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, during the week between 14 and 20 May 2024, light to moderate rain are expected in Puntland and Somaliland with dry conditions likely throughout central and southern parts of the country. This general northward spread of the rains is favored by the northward presence of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). As had been anticipated, the eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean favored the general dry conditions during the last week (7 – 13). While the index is presently within the region, none of the weather forecast models has captured its effect on rainfall during this forecast week. Given that its 5-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still a likelihood of moderate to heavy rains towards the end of the forecast week i.e., from around 18 May 2024. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, Southwest and Hirshabelle. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over northwestern parts of Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. These rains are likely to be received between 14 and 16 May 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts, northern parts of Qardho district, and southern parts of both Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; Garowe district, coastal parts of Eyl district, and northern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; eastern and western parts of Ceerigaabo district, western parts of Ceel Afweyn district, and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; southern parts of Laas Caanod district and northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region; northern parts of Burco district and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region; Gebiley district and northern and southern parts of Hargeysa district, and southern parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Borama and central and southern parts of Baki district, northern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region. Rains of similarly trace amounts are also likely over isolated areas of Hobyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region; western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne town in Hiraan region; eastern parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; and Banadir region. Dry conditions (rainfall less than 1 mm) are likely in most areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle region. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurunwaarey, Qoryooley, Wanla Weyn districts and central and western parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; Jalalaqsi, Bulo Burte and most other parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Dheer, Ceel Buur, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts and most other parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud regiuon; Xarardheere district, vast areas of Hobyo district, most other parts of both Jariiban and Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region. Towards the northern parts of the country, dry conditions are also likely over inland parts of Eyl district, and most other parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Bossaso district, most other parts of Qardho, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; most other parts of Ceerigaabo, Laasqoray and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; Xudun, Taleex, and most other parts of both Laas Caanood and Caynabo districts in Sool region; Buhoodle and Sheikh districts and most other parts of Burco and Owdweyne districts in Togdheer region; central parts of Hargeysa district, and most other parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Lughaye, northern parts of Baki district, and southern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.