During the week between 1 and 7 May 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light to moderate rain is expected over most parts of the country, with chances of heavy rain and flash floods expected in some areas of Hiraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions. Based on climatology, the observed and anticipated northward spread of the rains into the central and northern parts of Somalia is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The arrival of the ITCZ will attract low-level incursions of precipitable water inland thereby mitigating the prolonged dry conditions over Bari. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, which ideally is expected to propagate eastwards covering the entire globe in 40 – 60 days, and therefore anticipated to be present over 1 of the 8 regions for about one week, has stagnated over the eastern Indian Ocean for about two weeks. This is favoring the observed moderate to heavy rains in Somalia and the extremely heavy rains elsewhere within the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The location of the index since 25 April shows improvement in strength and increase in forecast skill and reliability. As of 1 May, the index is at region 4 and is forecast to be back to region 2 within the next two weeks. Its lagged effect favors a continuation of moderate rains in the first half of the forecast period (1 – 4 May) with expected possible resumption of heavy rainfall activity in the second week of May. The favorable effect of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the rains cannot also be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the warming in the Indian Ocean indicates a likelihood of positive IOD developing earlier than usual. Although Somalia is not within the direct path of the current tropical disturbance in the western Indian Ocean, the low pressure associated with it may lead to sucking of moisture causing generally less rainfall over the southern part of the country. Week by week and day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: • Very heavy cumulative rainfall between 150 mm and 200 mm is likely over some isolated areas in central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Hobyo district, southern parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jaariban district in Mudug region, and southern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region. The rains over isolated areas in the above places particularly in the central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district may be very intense leading to more than 200 mm in cumulative terms and are likely to fall between 1 and 3 May 2024 with likelihood of flash flooding in vulnerable spots including flat and crowded human settlements. • Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is likely over the rest of the other areas in the following places: central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Hobyo district, southern parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jaariban district, and eastern parts of Galdogob district in Mudug region, and western and southern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region. Similarly heavy rains are likely over northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region, eastern parts of Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region and Baraawe district in Lower Shabelle. • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over the rest of the areas in Dhuusamareeb district, and eastern parts of both Ceel Buur and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region, Gaalkacyo and Galdogob district and coastal parts of Xaradheere district in Mudug region, and Belet Weyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laas Qoray districts in Sanaag region, Burtinle district and northern parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwaarey and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region. Similar rains are likely over Qandala district and southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region, central parts of Hargeisa-Odweyne districts’ border, Buhoodle district in Togdherregion, Las Anod and Xudun-Taleex districts’ border in Sool region. Rains of similarly moderate intensy are likely over some areas in South West State including Buur Hakaba district and central parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region, central parts of Bakool region and central parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bari, Nugaal, coastal parts of Mudug, southern parts of Sanaag, central parts of Sool, and southern parts of Awdal. • Dry conditions are likely to prevail over southwestern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the country. These include western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Caluul and Iskushuban districts in Bari region.