Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.

Light rains are expected in a few pockets of central and northern regions in Somalia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period. There still remains a high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks.

Most parts of Somaliland, northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive rains in the next three days. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. This has led to a drastic increase of river levels along the two rivers. Today the river level at Luuq along Juba is 6.10m which above the high risk of flooding. River flooding have reported in Luuq area and the surrounding. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for more rains in the basins. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising levels there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba River as well as the Middle and Lower reaches of Shabelle River in the coming days.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.

During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.

The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.

Little or no rains are foreseen in Somalia for the next 24 hours. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands whose rains contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains within the same period.

During the first Dekad of April 2016 (1st – 10th), most parts of Somalia recorded good rains marking a possible start of the Gu rainy season this year. The northern parts recorded significant rains while the southern while central parts received little rains. The Northwest Agro‐pastoral, Guban and West Golis pastoral areas of Somaliland which have remained dry for a long period experienced a relief when moderate to heavy rains were received in many parts of the area. Dilla and Boroma recorded the highest amounts of rainfall of 107mm and 83mm respectively. Other surrounding areas such Hargeisa and Gebilley also recorded significant amounts of rainfall. The southern parts of Sool and sanaag regions did not record any rains. A few paces received light to moderate rains during the period under review. This also came a s relief especially to the livestock sector following the depletion of pasture in the area due to current drought conditions being experienced here. The rains are expected to increase further until the end of the season.

The last 24 hours have seen an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country including Puntland and other central regions that have not had any significant rains since the beginning of the season. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.