During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

During the second dekad of November, (11th – 20th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions and a few places in central parts of Somaliland. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 16th November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. Field reports indicate an increase in river levels in the headwaters of Shabelle River in the Ethiopian highlands. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to Somalia reaches within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba changes to moderate level. However, there is a great concern in Middle and Lower reaches of Juba where there exists open river banks and the situation may get worse with a slight increase in river levels.

A tropical storm named MEGH has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions of the country during the next four days. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 36hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen along these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

While most parts of the country are expected to remain dry, Middle Juba, Lower Juba regions, and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle will experience light to moderate rains during the forecast period.

Most parts of northern and central Somalia will remain dry in the next three days. However, Bay Bakool, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba regions are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive light to moderate rains

Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country. The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.

Wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in the Ethiopian highlands and Juba & Shabelle river basins inside Somalia with a possibility of river level increase. The northern parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

The Deyr rains in Somalia continue to spread both in space and intensity. The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands.

The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of the country will continue to receive light to moderate rains. Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during in the coming three days.